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United States presidential election, 2008
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- "2008 American election", "2008 United States election", and "2008 U.S. election" re-direct here. For other uses, see 2008 United States election (disambiguation).
The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled for Tuesday November 4, 2008 will be the 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election and will select the President of the United States and Vice President of the United States.
The Republican Party has chosen John McCain, the senior United States Senator from Arizona as its nominee; Barack Obama, the junior United States Senator from Illinois, has been chosen as the nominee for the Democratic Party. The 2008 election is particularly notable because it is the first time in U.S. history that two sitting senators will run against each other for president, and because it is the first time an African American is a presidential nominee for a major party, as well as the first time both major candidates were born outside the continental United States - Hawaii for Obama and the Canal Zone in Panama for McCain. With African-American candidate Barack Obama, who is of mixed African and Caucasian parentage, as the Democratic Party nominee for President and John McCain's selection of female Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as the Republican Party nominee for Vice-President, the eventual winning ticket is virtually assured of having a historic context. Barring unforeseen events, this will be the first time in American history in which a candidate on the winning ticket is either a woman or an African American.
The Libertarian Party has nominated former Congressman Bob Barr, the Constitution Party has nominated pastor and radio talk show host Chuck Baldwin, and the Green Party has nominated former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. Ralph Nader declined to seek the Green Party nomination and is running as an independent candidate.
The election will coincide with the 2008 Senate elections in thirty-three states, House of Representatives elections in all states, and gubernatorial elections in eleven states, as well as various state referendums and local elections. As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be based partly on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.
Characteristics
No incumbents
The 2008 election marks the first time since the 1928 election in which neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President ran for their party's nomination in the presidential election,[1] and the first time since the 1952 election that neither the incumbent President nor incumbent Vice President is a candidate in the general election. The incumbent President, George W. Bush, is serving his second term and is barred from running again by the term limits in the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution. Vice President Dick Cheney has chosen not to seek the presidency.
In the three previous two-term Presidential administrations—those of Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton—the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.[2][3] From 2001, Vice President Dick Cheney frequently stated he would never run for President: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[4] The 2008 election is the first in which the Vice President is not a candidate for either the presidency or the vice presidency since Nelson Rockefeller in 1976.
Leading candidates are senators
The nominees for the major party nominations were both serving United States Senators: Republican candidate John McCain (Arizona) and Democratic candidate Barack Obama (Illinois). It is the first time in history that the two main opponents in the general election are both sitting Senators.[5] Therefore, it appears virtually certain that the 2008 election will mark the first time since the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 that a sitting Senator will be elected President of the United States, and only the third time ever in American history, after John F. Kennedy and Warren G. Harding. Obama's running mate, Joe Biden of Delaware, is also a sitting senator.
Leading candidates' origins and age
Either candidate would become the first president born outside the Continental United States, as Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii and McCain was born at Coco Solo, Panama Canal Zone, a US naval base. A bipartisan legal review agreed that McCain is a natural-born citizen of the United States, a constitutional requirement to become president.[6] Obama, having a white mother and Kenyan father of the Luo ethnic group,[7] would be the first president to be black and to be biracial. McCain would be the first president from Arizona, while Obama would be the third president elected from Illinois, the first two being Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant. The last candidates to run from these states were Adlai Stevenson (D) of Illinois, who ran and lost in 1952 and 1956, and Barry Goldwater (R) of Arizona, who ran and lost in 1964. While being elected from Illinois, Obama would become the first president from Hawaii, his home state by birth.
Also, if inaugurated on January 20, 2009, McCain would be the oldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency at age 72 years and 144 days,[8] and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated (Ronald Reagan was 73 years and 350 days old at his second inauguration).[9]
Barack Obama and John McCain are 24 years and 340 days apart in age. This is the largest age disparity between the two major party presidential candidates, surpassing Bill Clinton and Bob Dole (23 years and 28 days apart in age) who ran against each other in 1996.
This is also the first Presidential election since 1976, and only the fourth since the Civil War, in which none of the four nominees for President and Vice-President from the two major parties have ties of birth or political office to any of the three most populous states in the Union (New York, Texas, or California). Obama was born in Hawaii and represents Illinois, McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone and represents Arizona, Biden was born in Pennsylvania and represents Delaware, while Palin was born in Idaho and represents Alaska.
Candidates switching parties
Former ambassador Alan Keyes, former Congressman Bob Barr, and businessman Wayne Allyn Root left the Republican Party to join or seek the nomination of a third party. Keyes was defeated at the Constitution Party National Convention in a bid for the party's presidential nomination and is currently running as the nominee of the newly formed America's Independent Party. Bob Barr became the Libertarian Party nominee, and Root became Barr's running mate.
Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and former Senator Mike Gravel left the Democratic Party to join or seek the nomination of a third party. McKinney won the nomination of the Green Party, and Gravel lost his bid for the Libertarian nomination after being eliminated in the fourth round of voting.
A September 5, 2008 article from economicpolicyjournal.com stated, "Congressman Ron Paul will make a major announcement next week in Washington D.C. at the National Press Club. Both Bob Barr and Chuck Baldwin are expected at the news conference. Barr is the Libertarian presidential nominee and Baldwin is the presidential nominee of the Constitution Party. Speculation is that that Baldwin and Barr are stepping aside so that Paul can become the nominee of both the Constitution and Libertarian Parties."[10]
Campaign
- See also: United States presidential election, 2008 timeline
Pre-primary campaign
"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates".[11] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.[12]
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million; the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.[13] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Ron Paul.[14] Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007.[15] Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.[16]
Primaries and caucuses
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Although the nomination process for each of the two major political parties technically continues through June, in previous cycles the candidates have been effectively chosen by the March primaries. This trend continued in 2008 on the Republican side, with John McCain locking up the nomination with victories in Texas and Ohio on March 4, but Democrat Barack Obama did not win the nomination until June 3, after a long campaign against Hilary Clinton. Obama has a wide lead in states won, but Democratic state delegate contests have been decided by a form of proportional representation since 1976.[17] Clinton claimed a lead in the popular vote, but the Associated Press found her numbers accurate only in one very close scenario.[18]
During late 2007, both parties adopted rules against states moving their primaries to an earlier date in the year. For the Republicans, the penalty for this violation is supposed to be the loss of half the state party's delegates to the convention. The Democratic Party only allowed four states to hold elections before February 5, 2008. Initially the Democratic Party leadership said it would strip all Democratic delegates from Florida and Michigan, which had moved their primaries all the way into January. All major candidates agreed officially not to campaign in Florida or Michigan, and Edwards and Obama had their names removed from the Michigan ballot. Clinton won a majority of delegates from both states (though 40% voted uncommitted) and subsequently led a fight to fully seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.[19]
Political columnist Christopher Weber notes that while this was self-serving, it was also pragmatic on the part of Clinton should Florida or Michigan voters have not voted for Democrats in the general election based on the Democratic Party's decision regarding the seating of delegates.[20] This led to speculation that the fight over the delegates could last until the convention in August. However, on May 31, 2008, a deal was reached by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party that allows for delegates from Michigan and Florida to receive half a vote each.[21]
January 2008
Around the start of the year, support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa: the two upstart campaigns were triumphant. Suddenly John McCain displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front-runner in New Hampshire.
While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was the new front runner in New Hampshire and the Clinton campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her campaign, Clinton's voice wavered with emotion in a public interview broadcast live on TV.[22] By the end of that day, Clinton won the primary by 2 points, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single digits less than a month before.[23]
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests. In South Carolina Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon after.
February 2008
On February 3 on the UCLA campus, celebrities Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for Barack Obama in a rally led by Michelle Obama.[24] Obama trailed in the California polling by an average of 6.0%; he ended up losing the state by 8.3%.[25] Some analysts cited a large Latino turnout as the deciding factor.[26] On the Republican side, John McCain was endorsed by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani (who had dropped out of the race following the Florida primary), giving McCain a significant boost in the state.[27] Schwarzenegger's wife, Maria Shriver, endorsed Obama.[28]
By February 4, it was apparent that McCain might be able to wrap up the nomination quickly, while the Democratic candidates were hoping for a swing of momentum following the February 5 primaries.
Super Tuesday: On February 5, 2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state U.S. presidential primary elections was held.[29] Twenty-four states and American Samoa held either caucuses or primary elections for one or both parties on this date, leaving the Democrats in a virtual tie, and John McCain just short of clinching the Republican nod.[30] A few days later, Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed McCain,[31] leaving Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul as the only major challengers of McCain in the remaining Republican primaries.
Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while Nebraska and the U.S. Virgin Islands voted for the Democrats and Kansas voted for the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as the Maine caucuses the next day,[32] and Huckabee also came out on top in Kansas, winning by an even greater percentage. The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia voted for both parties on February 12 in what was referred to as Potomac primary. Obama won all three for the Democrats (giving him eight consecutive victories after Super Tuesday) and McCain took all three for the Republicans.
Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th.[33] Wisconsin and Washington voted for the Republicans on February 19; John McCain won these states.[33] The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico closed February for the Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.
March 2008
For the Republicans, on March 1 American Samoa voted. March 4 was dubbed by some as this year's Mini Tuesday,[34] when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then voted for the Democrats and Guam voted for the Republicans on March 8. Mississippi voted for both parties on March 11.
On March 4, Hillary Clinton carried Ohio and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries; some considered this a surprise upset,[35] though she led in the polling averages in both states.[25][36] She also carried the primary in Texas, but Obama won the Texas caucuses held the same day and netted more delegates from the state than Clinton.[37] John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four primaries, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, putting him over the top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination.[36] Mike Huckabee conceded the race to McCain, leaving Ron Paul, who had just 16 delegates, as his only remaining opponent for the Republican nomination.[38] In the Wyoming Democratic caucuses, Obama edged out Clinton to gain 7 delegates to her 5, and three days later he beat her again, 59%–39%, in Mississippi.
April through June 2008
Only one state voted in April: Pennsylvania, which held a primary for both parties on April 22. Hillary Clinton won this Democratic primary, with approximately 55% of the vote. Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses on May 3 by 7 votes out of more than 4,500. On May 6, Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary with 51% of the vote while Barack Obama won in North Carolina with 56% of the vote. Nebraska's Republican and West Virginia's Democratic primaries were held on May 13. In West Virginia, Clinton won with 67% of the vote and 20 of 28 pledged delegates. On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon held primaries for both parties. In Kentucky, Clinton won with 65% of the vote to Obama's 31%. In Oregon, Obama defeated Clinton, by a margin of 18%. Idaho voted for Republicans only on May 27. On May 31, Democratic Party officials, after a tense meeting between Clinton supporters and Obama backers, voted to seat all of Florida and Michigan's delegates at the party's convention, with each getting a half-vote.[39] Puerto Rico held a Democratic primary on June 1, which Clinton won with 68% of the vote to Obama's 32%. The primary season ended on June 3, with contests in New Mexico (Republican), Montana (Democratic), and South Dakota (both parties). Clinton won South Dakota's primary, while Obama was victorious in the Montana primary. As expected, John McCain won all the states during this time period handily, though typically 20-25% of the vote in the Republican primaries went to Huckabee and Paul, despite the fact both had already been mathematically eliminated from contention for the nomination.
Party conventions
- April 23-26, 2008: 2008 Constitution Party National Convention held in Kansas City, Missouri.
- May 23-26, 2008: 2008 Libertarian National Convention, held in Denver, Colorado.
- July 10-13, 2008: 2008 Green Party National Convention, held in Chicago, Illinois.
- July 18-20, 2008: 2008 Reform Party National Convention, held in Dallas, Texas.
- August 25-28, 2008: 2008 Democratic National Convention, held in Denver, Colorado.
- September 1-4, 2008: 2008 Republican National Convention, held in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Presidential and vice-presidential debates
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Four debates have been announced by the Commission on Presidential Debates[40]
A Zogby poll released on August 15, 2008, indicated that most Republicans and Democrats want Libertarian candidate Bob Barr to be included in the presidential debates. Nearly 70% of independent voters would like to see Barr included. The same poll indicated that nearly half of likely voters, and a majority (59%) of independent voters would like to see independent candidate Ralph Nader included in the debates as well.[42]
Campaign costs
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The reported cost of campaigning for President has increased significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004). In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a $1 billion election, and that to be taken seriously, a candidate needed to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.[43]
Although he had said he would not be running for president, published reports indicated that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg had been considering a presidential bid as an independent with up to $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.[44] Bloomberg ultimately ended this speculation by unequivocally stating that he would not run.[45] Had Bloomberg decided to run, he would not have needed to campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions, greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.
With the increase in money, the public financing system funded by the presidential election campaign fund checkoff has not been used by many candidates. So far, John McCain,[46] Tom Tancredo,[47] John Edwards,[48] Chris Dodd,[49] and Joe Biden[50] have qualified for and elected to take public funds in the primary. Other major candidates have eschewed the low amount of spending permitted, or gave other reasons as in the case of Barack Obama, and have chosen not to participate.
Internet campaigns
Howard Dean collected large contributions via the internet in his 2004 primary run. In 2008 candidates have gone even further in reaching out to Internet users through their own sites and through sites such as YouTube, MySpace and Facebook.[51][52] Republican Ron Paul[53] and Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama have been the most active in courting voters through the Internet.[54] On December 16, 2007, Ron Paul collected more money on a single day through Internet donations than any presidential candidate in US history with over $6 million.[55] Anonymous and semi-anonymous smear campaigns traditionally done with fliers and push calling have also spread to the Internet.[56]
Election day through to Inauguration
- November 4, 2008: Election Day in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters cast votes for listed presidential candidates but are actually selecting their state's slate of Electoral College members.
- December 15, 2008: Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President and Vice President.
- January 6, 2009: Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress. If a member of Congress wishes to object to the certification of a state's electoral votes as was originally reported on Election Night, he or she must do so at this point, even if recounts or lawsuits to require a recount are already in progress.
- January 20, 2009: Inauguration Day.
Candidates
- Further information: List of candidates in the United States presidential election, 2008 and Comparison of United States presidential candidates, 2008
Major parties
- Further information: Political parties in the United States
Democratic Party
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Nominees for the Democratic Party:
| Democratic National Convention Presidential vote, 2008 |
| Candidate |
Votes |
Percentage |
| Barack Obama |
1549 |
35.07% |
| Hillary Rodham Clinton |
341.5 |
7.73% |
| Abstain |
1 |
0% |
| Totals |
2,527.0 |
57.20% |
Obama was nominated by acclamation at the 2008 Democratic Convention. Part way through the roll call, former rival Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York motioned to suspend the rules of the roll call and nominate Obama by acclamation. This was done and the voting was not officially completed. Obama is also the nominee of the United Citizens Party in South Carolina.[57]
- On August 23, Senator Joe Biden of Delaware was announced as Obama's running mate via a text message to supporters. This was the first time in a presidential campaign where a text message was used for such an announcement.[58] Biden was nominated by voice vote at the convention.
Republican Party
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Nominees for the Republican Party:
McCain was nominated by roll call at the 2008 Republican National Convention.
- On August 29, Alaska’s youngest as well as its first female governor Sarah Palin was announced as McCain's running mate[59] at a rally in Dayton, Ohio. She is the first female vice presidential pick on a major party ticket since Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, and the first in the history of the Republican Party.[60] Palin was nominated by acclamation at the convention.
| Republican National Convention presidential vote, 2008 |
| Candidate |
Votes |
Percentage |
| John McCain |
2,343 |
98.45% |
| Ron Paul |
15 |
0.63% |
| Mitt Romney |
2 |
0.08% |
| Delegates that did not vote |
20 |
0.84% |
| Totals |
2,380 |
100.00% |
Other parties
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America's Independent Party
Nominee for the America's Independent Party:
Alan Keyes, former U.S. ambassador, of Maryland. After unsuccessful attempts to secure the 2008 nominations of the Republican and Constitution parties, Keyes announced his intention to run as the nominee of the newly formed America's Independent Party, and as an independent in states where the party does not have ballot status.
- Wiley Drake, pastor and radio announcer, of California is the vice presidential nominee.[61]
Boston Tea Party
Charles Jay of Florida, 2004 Presidential nominee of the Personal Choice Party, was selected as the nominee for President of the United States at the online Convention of the Boston Tea Party June 15-16, 2008.
- Thomas L. Knapp of Missouri, blogger and editor of the online magazine Rational Review, is the vice-presidential nominee.
Constitution Party
Nominee for the Constitution Party:
Chuck Baldwin of Florida, pastor, political activist and 2004 Constitution Party vice presidential nominee, received the presidential nomination of the Constitution Party at its national convention in Kansas City, Missouri on April 26, 2008.
- Darrell Castle of Tennessee, activist, attorney, and former Marine Corps Lieutenant is the vice-presidential nominee.
Green Party
Nominee for the Green Party:
Cynthia McKinney, former Democratic Congresswoman from Georgia, was chosen as the Green Party's nominee for President at that party's National Convention in Chicago on July 12, 2008. She also received the endorsement of the Workers World Party in July.[62]
Libertarian Party
Nominees for the Libertarian Party:
Bob Barr, former Republican Congressman from Georgia was chosen as the Libertarian Party's nominee for President, at the Libertarian Party National Convention in Denver, Colorado on May 25, 2008.
Prohibition Party
Gene Amondson of Washington, minister and temperance movement activist, received the Prohibition Party's presidential nomination at its national convention on September 13, 2007.
Reform Party
Ted Weill of Mississippi was selected as the presidential nominee of the Reform Party at its National convention on July 20, 2008 in Dallas, Texas.
- Frank McEnulty of California is the vice-presidential nominee.
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation:
Gloria La Riva of California, was announced as the presidential nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation in January 2008.
Socialist Party USA
Nominees for the Socialist Party USA:
Brian Moore of Florida received the Socialist Party USA's presidential nomination at its national convention, October 19-21, 2007 in St. Louis, Missouri. He is also the nominee of Liberty Union Party of Vermont.
Socialist Workers Party
Róger Calero of New York, journalist, was announced as the presidential nominee of the Socialist Workers Party in January 2008. This is Calero's second run on the party's ballot; however, because he was born in Nicaragua, if he were to win, Calero would nonetheless be ineligible for the Presidency.
Independents
- See Independent (United States) presidential candidates, 2008
Candidates running on an independent presidential ticket:
Ralph Nader, consumer advocate, of Connecticut. The two time (1996, 2000) presidential nominee of the Green Party and 2004 independent presidential candidate announced his candidacy for another independent bid in February 2008. He is also on the ballot in some states as the nominee of the Peace and Freedom Party or the newly formed Independent Party.[63]
Battleground states
Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008. [64] >10% Obama lead 4%–10% Obama lead 1%–4% Obama lead Tie 1%–4% McCain lead 4%–10% McCain lead >10% McCain lead
Political experts have identified certain swing states where close votes might prove crucial to the outcome of the election.[65] These states may include, but are certainly not limited to:
- (Electoral College votes in parentheses)
- Colorado: (9) The Centennial State is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention. A strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention brought to bear on such issues as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. Recent polls show Colorado as a toss-up.[66]
- Florida: (27) The key player in 2000, whose votes went narrowly to George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security (two key components of winning the elderly vote), while Republicans have an advantage with their stance on tax cuts and values issues. The Hispanic and African American populations in Florida could also give the Democrats an edge in a close race. For Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Current polls show McCain with a slight average lead in Florida.[67]
- Indiana: (11) The state has not voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a poll shows a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican in the Presidential election 37%-32%.[68] Another poll by the Indianapolis Star showed the War in Iraq and the sluggish economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. Also, the poll found that a Democratic ticket featuring Indiana Senator Evan Bayh might have boosted the possibility of Indiana switching alliances.[69] Current polls show Indiana as a pure toss-up.[70] In 2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Also in 2006, Democrats gained control of the Indiana House.
- Michigan: (17) The Great Lakes State has been a fairly safe bet for the Democrats in recent decades, giving its substantial electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has narrowed, opening a window for the Republicans. Populism and a historically strong labor movement have dominated the state and given Democrats an advantage, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues appealing to "Reagan Democrats". A population exodus from Democratic Detroit has made the conservative Republican west more influential. Still, Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm was soundly re-elected in 2006 despite the state having the highest unemployment rate in the country on her watch. Current polls show Michigan with a slight Obama lead.[71]
- Missouri: (11) The Show Me State has been long been dubbed the bellwether for the nation because historically it has correlated very closely with the national Zeitgeist – with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has supported the winner of every Presidential election since 1904. The home state of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, and granted its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes such as stem cell research and universal health care. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Democrat Claire McCaskill. Moreover, the national mood souring over the war in Iraq and a contentious gubernatorial election with a Democratic favorite in Jay Nixon make this state a strong possibility for the Democrats. Current polls show John McCain with a slight average lead in Missouri.[72]
- Montana: (3) Polls in Montana have consistently shown a competitive race between Barack Obama and John McCain.[73] While Big Sky Country is normally safe Republican territory in presidential elections, Barack Obama's appeal to more libertarian-minded Republicans has eroded some of McCain's support in the Mountain West and Great Plains states. Montana currently has a popular Democratic governor and two Democratic U.S. Senators, all of whom could be helpful in drumming up support for Obama.
- Nevada: (5) Although Nevada has historically leaned Republican, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American votes make it a potential battleground state. (Its 2006 Gubernatorial election was particularly competitive, and Republican Jim Gibbons won only by a slim margin.) The Las Vegas metropolitan area with its dramatic increase in population has become an attractive destination for Democratic campaign resources, and Republicans are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Gibbons (29% approval rating as of March 2007) and Bush (34% approval rating as of March 2007).[74] Furthermore, Nevada has, with the single exception of 1976, been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, a record which makes it a secondary bellwether state. A current poll shows McCain with a slight lead in Nevada.[75]
- New Hampshire: (4) Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by narrow margins both times. Current polls show New Hampshire with a slight Obama lead.[76]
- New Mexico: (5) New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could tip the balance. New Mexico's large Hispanic and Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, and Governor Bill Richardson was a contender for the 2008 nomination, and had been widely speculated as a vice presidential candidate.
- North Carolina: (15) Like neighboring Virginia, North Carolina is undergoing somewhat of an identity shift. A burgeoning high-tech industry and fast-growing cities have brought swaths of transplants to the Tarheel State, many of whom have taken their Democratic voting habits with them. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole's increasingly competitive re-election bid exemplifies the changing political winds in her state. North Carolina's governorship is also up for election this year and currently leaning Democratic. Whether these down-ballot races will affect Obama and McCain's performance, or vice-versa, remains to be seen.
- North Dakota: (3) Like the other Great Plains states, North Dakota's voting history in presidential elections is staunchly Republican. The last Democrat to find success there was Lyndon Johnson forty-four years ago. But Barack Obama took a lead over John McCain in the state in late August after being just a few points behind for several months. North Dakota, along with neighboring Montana, is expected to be part of the Obama campaign's "Western Strategy" of winning over independents and anti-war Republicans in the Mountain West and Great Plains.
- Ohio: (20) "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer.[77] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004, and their tally was close enough to be contested. In 2006, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. The Republicans have never won the presidency without winning Ohio. Current polls show McCain with a slight average lead in Ohio.[78]
- Pennsylvania: (21) Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state."[79] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[80] Current polls show Barack Obama with a sizable lead in Pennsylvania.[81]
- Virginia: (13) No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's winning the Governor's Mansion in 2005, Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen, and in the 2007 when the Democrats reached a majority in the State Senate election. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state also is part of the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area the second highest income metropolitan area in the country, tends to lean Democratic. Virginia also has a large African American population, which could benefit a Democratic candidate in a close race. Unique political timing may come into play in Virginia in 2008, as popular former governor and Democrat Mark Warner is running for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner (no relation). His popularity (and widely-expected victory in November) could be a significant asset to the Democratic presidential candidate in Virginia. This notion is supported by a September 2007 Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34%. Current polls show Virginia as a pure toss-up.[82]
- Wisconsin: (10) Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000. Current polls show Barack Obama with a sizable lead in Wisconsin.[83]
- Individual congressional districts
- Maine, 2nd Congressional District (1): The Second Congressional District is more competitive than the state at-large or the First Congressional District, which are safely Democratic.
- Nebraska, 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts (1 each): Although Nebraska has not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and is not expected to this time around, Nebraska's rules regarding electoral votes allow for a split in the electoral vote. Since 1991, two of Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded based on the winner of the statewide election while the other three go to the highest vote-getter in each of the state's three congressional districts. Although possible, a split in the electoral vote has not occurred in any election. However, a poll was recently published showing Obama within striking distance of McCain in two of the congressional districts with McCain leading solidly in the 3rd Congressional District and statewide.[84]
The potential battleground states listed above control a total of 159 electoral votes. Of the states that are not normally expected to be competitive, 178 electoral votes (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming) are generally inclined to go to the Republican party, while 201 (California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington) are typically expected to go to the Democrats. However, even some of these states may become competitive as the election progresses, and the selection of each party's vice presidential nominee could put a previously uncompetitive state or region into play. Similarly, states that are currently considered to be potential battlegrounds may become "safe" for one party as the election progresses. As well, because of Maine and Nebraska's unique rules regarding the electoral votes it is possible that the vote may be different throughout the districts but not throughout the State.
Charts of polling data in battleground states
Updated August 20, 2008
Florida
data
In Florida, from February to mid-May 2008, McCain held a steady lead in the polls. From mid-May to mid-June, the candidates were virtually tied. Polling conducted since mid-June shows McCain in the lead in most polls, and Obama ahead in some polls. The number of undecided voters has generally been decreasing from an average of about 15% down to an average of about 5% to 10% in recent polling.[85]
Indiana
data
In Indiana, from February 2008 until early May 2008, McCain's 9% lead in the polls was reduced to a tie. The candidates were tied in polls conducted in late June. A recent poll shows McCain with a 6% lead over Obam |
